Bitcoin surged on Monday after an incident at a Donald Trump rally. Traders are betting on the former president winning November’s US presidential election after a gunman injured him.
Bitcoin’s price rose by as much as 9.1%, reaching $62,830, its highest level in two weeks. Trump, known for his pro-crypto stance, was shot in the ear at a campaign rally over the weekend. His campaign reassured the public that he is “fine” and will attend the Republican National Convention.
Grzegorz Dróżdż, a market analyst at Conotoxia, stated, “The probability of a Donald Trump victory has increased significantly.” He suggested that a Trump presidency would positively impact the crypto market.
Market Reactions
Shares in Trump’s Truth Social media company rose by 37% in early morning trading. Trump Media & Technology Group, which went public in March, saw a rally ahead of the recent debate between Trump and President Joe Biden.
The implied odds of Trump winning in November jumped according to live trading on PredictIt, a political betting site. Broader financial markets also reacted, with US Treasury yields climbing and the US dollar index remaining steady.
Broader Economic Impact
Many investors believe Trump’s policies would drive up deficits and inflation, which would hit US Treasuries and boost the dollar. This mirrors the reaction following his 2016 election win. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.22%, while Wall Street’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively.
Rabobank analysts noted, “For the markets, the complexities of the US political backdrop have been boiled down to the assumption that the weekend events will lead to an increased chance of Trump winning the November presidential election.”
Bitcoin’s Future
Bitcoin peaked above $70,000 in mid-March but struggled after April’s halving event. The number of daily bitcoins available for miners dropped, affecting its price. Despite this, Bitcoin’s recent surge suggests renewed investor confidence in its future under a potential Trump presidency.
